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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown B v University of Bath Ladies A (Thu 08 Feb 2007)Match played between Anne-Marie Thompson (home) and Ali Traynor (away).Match won by Anne-Marie Thompson. Result: 9-3,9-1,9-4. Starting level for Anne-Marie Thompson: 746, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Ali Traynor: 331, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Anne-Marie Thompson to win as she is currently playing 125% better than Ali Traynor. Anne-Marie Thompson won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anne-Marie Thompson played 86% better than Ali Traynor in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Anne-Marie Thompson was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 509 and 746 without affecting her level. In this case, Anne-Marie Thompson played at level 622 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anne-Marie Thompson would normally have been playing at level 629 (based on typical behaviour), Ali Traynor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anne-Marie Thompson changes to 0% and Ali Traynor changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anne-Marie Thompson becomes 0% and for Ali Traynor becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2006-7' so the adjustment for Anne-Marie Thompson is 0% and for Ali Traynor is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anne-Marie Thompson: 84%, Ali Traynor: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anne-Marie Thompson: 76%, Ali Traynor: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Anne-Marie Thompson: 745, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Ali Traynor: 332, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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