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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: University of Bath 3 v Redland Eagles (Tue 05 Feb 2013)Match played between Rory Johnson (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Result: 1-9,9-10,8-10. Starting level for Rory Johnson: 559, level confidence: 57%. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 733, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Rory Johnson. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss played 38% better than Rory Johnson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss actually played at a level of 751 and Rory Johnson at a level of 546. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 2.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to +1.6% and Rory Johnson changes to -2.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes +1.6% and for Rory Johnson becomes -2.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2013' so the adjustment for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is +1.2% and for Rory Johnson is -1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 86%, Rory Johnson: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 84%, Rory Johnson: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rory Johnson: 549, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 741, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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