Luke Bywater v Nathan Mead (Sun 09 Jun 2013)

Match won by Nathan Mead. Result: 3-11,9-11.

Starting level for Luke Bywater: 878, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Mead: 477, level confidence: 56%.
Luke Bywater to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Nathan Mead.

Nathan Mead won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nathan Mead played 83% better than Luke Bywater in this match. An upset!

Nathan Mead has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 586. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nathan Mead actually played at a level of 971 and Luke Bywater at a level of 530. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 66% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 51% and 51% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nathan Mead changes to +36% and Luke Bywater changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nathan Mead becomes +18.5% and for Luke Bywater becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Avon Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nathan Mead is limited to +10% and Luke Bywater is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Nathan Mead has already increased 32% since starting this event at level 445. The amount a player can increase in a single event is limited to 25% so Nathan Mead's increase for this match has been limited to 0%.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Nathan Mead is +23%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nathan Mead: 75%, Luke Bywater: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nathan Mead: 41%, Luke Bywater: 46%.

A final adjustment of -5.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Bywater: 838, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Nathan Mead: 526, level confidence: 41%.

Notes

• This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
• A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
• Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results - though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
• Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above if this applies to this match.
• The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added weight to the more important matches.
• There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which are not covered here.
• You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better than expected against your opponent.
• We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
• For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file here.
• If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated, please contact us. We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been answered on the help page. We are unable to answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points. Or just be incredibly talented!