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Login: | Explaining level changesDiv 1: David Lloyd Green v Westbury David Lloyd Women's summer (Thu 14 Jun 2007)Match played between Caroline Archer (home) and Helen Osborne (away).Match won by Helen Osborne. Result: 3-9,4-9,3-9. Starting level for Caroline Archer: 212, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Helen Osborne: 580, level confidence: 43%. Helen Osborne to win as she is currently playing 174% better than Caroline Archer. Helen Osborne won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Osborne played 67% better than Caroline Archer in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Helen Osborne was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 329 and 580 without affecting her level. In this case, Helen Osborne played at level 402 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Helen Osborne would normally have been playing at level 456 (based on typical behaviour), Caroline Archer played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Osborne changes to 0% and Caroline Archer changes to +6.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Osborne becomes 0% and for Caroline Archer becomes +4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Womens Summer 2007' so the adjustment for Helen Osborne is 0% and for Caroline Archer is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Osborne: 65%, Caroline Archer: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Osborne: 51%, Caroline Archer: 58%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Caroline Archer: 218, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Helen Osborne: 579, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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