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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Whitchurch Imperial A v David Lloyd (Wed 14 Aug 2013)Match played between Bill Hope/Lee Maynard (home) and Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey (away).Match won by Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey. Result: 11-15,9-15,1-15. Starting level for Bill Hope/Lee Maynard: 895, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,531, level confidence: 37%. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey to win as he is currently playing 183% better than Bill Hope/Lee Maynard. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played 114% better than Bill Hope/Lee Maynard in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,427 and 2,531 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played at level 1,940 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey would normally have been playing at level 1,962 (based on typical behaviour), Bill Hope/Lee Maynard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey changes to 0% and Bill Hope/Lee Maynard changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey becomes 0% and for Bill Hope/Lee Maynard becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2013' so the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey is 0% and for Bill Hope/Lee Maynard is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 61%, Bill Hope/Lee Maynard: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 53%, Bill Hope/Lee Maynard: 28%. Final level for Bill Hope/Lee Maynard: 900, level confidence: 28%. Final level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,531, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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