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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1A: Kingsdown Stallions v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 04 Dec 2013)Match played between Unknown Player (home) and David Wright (away).Match won by David Wright. Result: 0-9,4-9,3-9. Starting level for Unknown Player: 758, level confidence: 18%. Starting level for David Wright: 1,861, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. David Wright to win as he is currently playing 146% better than Unknown Player. David Wright won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wright played 97% better than Unknown Player in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Wright was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,187 and 1,861 without affecting his level. In this case, David Wright played at level 1,509 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Wright would normally have been playing at level 1,524 (based on typical behaviour), Unknown Player played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wright changes to 0% and Unknown Player changes to +0.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wright becomes 0% and for Unknown Player becomes +0.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2013/2014' so the adjustment for David Wright is 0% and for Unknown Player is +0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wright: 89%, Unknown Player: 43%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wright: 80%, Unknown Player: 38%. A final adjustment of +10.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Unknown Player: 779, level confidence: 38%. Final level for David Wright: 2,215, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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