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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3A: Colston v University of Bristol Fresh (Wed 27 Nov 2013)Match played between Alex Rendu (home) and Sammy Rebdi (away).Match won by Sammy Rebdi. Result: 3-9,1-9,6-9. Starting level for Alex Rendu: 389, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Sammy Rebdi: 896, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Sammy Rebdi to win as he is currently playing 130% better than Alex Rendu. Sammy Rebdi won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sammy Rebdi played 67% better than Alex Rendu in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sammy Rebdi was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 601 and 896 without affecting his level. In this case, Sammy Rebdi played at level 698 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sammy Rebdi would normally have been playing at level 750 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Rendu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sammy Rebdi changes to 0% and Alex Rendu changes to +4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sammy Rebdi becomes 0% and for Alex Rendu becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2013/2014' so the adjustment for Sammy Rebdi is 0% and for Alex Rendu is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sammy Rebdi: 86%, Alex Rendu: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sammy Rebdi: 73%, Alex Rendu: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex Rendu: 400, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Sammy Rebdi: 895, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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