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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown A v University of Bristol Llamas (Thu 08 Nov 2007)Match played between Jayne Langley (home) and Catrin Tyler (away).Match won by Catrin Tyler. Result: 3-9,0-9,0-9. Starting level for Jayne Langley: 190, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Catrin Tyler: 239, level confidence: 44%. Catrin Tyler to win as she is currently playing 26% better than Jayne Langley. Catrin Tyler won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Catrin Tyler played 209% better than Jayne Langley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Catrin Tyler actually played at a level of 375 and Jayne Langley at a level of 121. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 57% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 49% and 49% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Catrin Tyler changes to +11% and Jayne Langley changes to -49%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Catrin Tyler becomes +7% and for Jayne Langley becomes -24%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2008' so the adjustment for Catrin Tyler is +5.3% and for Jayne Langley is -17%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jayne Langley is limited to -16% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Catrin Tyler: 66%, Jayne Langley: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Catrin Tyler: 42%, Jayne Langley: 20%. A final adjustment of -10.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jayne Langley: 132, level confidence: 20%. Final level for Catrin Tyler: 253, level confidence: 42%. Notes
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