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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redwood v Weston A (Thu 06 Dec 2007)Match played between Jo Hobbs (home) and Sarah Farrant (away).Match won by Jo Hobbs. Result: 9-1,9-2,9-0. Starting level for Jo Hobbs: 278, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Sarah Farrant: 185, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Jo Hobbs to win as she is currently playing 50% better than Sarah Farrant. Jo Hobbs won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jo Hobbs played 209% better than Sarah Farrant in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jo Hobbs actually played at a level of 399 and Sarah Farrant at a level of 129. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jo Hobbs changes to +34% and Sarah Farrant changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jo Hobbs becomes +17.6% and for Sarah Farrant becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2008' so the adjustment for Jo Hobbs is +13% and for Sarah Farrant is -8.4%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jo Hobbs is limited to +10% and Sarah Farrant is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jo Hobbs: 71%, Sarah Farrant: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jo Hobbs: 49%, Sarah Farrant: 60%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jo Hobbs: 305, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Sarah Farrant: 176, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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