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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd Women's winter B v Whitecross Ladies (Thu 13 Dec 2007)Match played between Helen Pennington (home) and Jean Williams (away).Match won by Helen Pennington. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-4. Starting level for Helen Pennington: 354, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Jean Williams: 248, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Helen Pennington to win as she is currently playing 43% better than Jean Williams. Helen Pennington won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Helen Pennington played 134% better than Jean Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Helen Pennington actually played at a level of 453 and Jean Williams at a level of 194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Helen Pennington changes to +23% and Jean Williams changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Helen Pennington becomes +12.5% and for Jean Williams becomes -11%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Winter 2008' so the adjustment for Helen Pennington is +9.4% and for Jean Williams is -8.3%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jean Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Helen Pennington: 83%, Jean Williams: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Helen Pennington: 65%, Jean Williams: 68%. Final level for Helen Pennington: 387, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Jean Williams: 236, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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