Morgan Willicott v Matthew Regan (Sat 13 Nov 2010)
Match won by Morgan Willicott. Result: 11-3,11-8,11-6.
Starting level for
Morgan Willicott:
313, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
Matthew Regan:
88, level confidence: 18%.
Morgan Willicott to win as he is currently playing
256% better than Matthew Regan.
Morgan Willicott won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Morgan Willicott played
94% better than Matthew Regan in this match.
No results for Matthew Regan for more than 10 months before this junior event (Avon Junior Open) so assume an
estimated 42% increase since then.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Morgan Willicott was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 152 and 313 without affecting his level.
In this case, Morgan Willicott played at level 242 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Matthew Regan is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Morgan Willicott: 32%, Matthew Regan: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Morgan Willicott: 23%, Matthew Regan: 23%.
A final adjustment of +42% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Morgan Willicott:
631, level confidence: 23%.
Final level for Matthew Regan:
125, level confidence: 23%.
Notes
- This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results
and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken
to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
- A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had
enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows
these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
- Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results -
though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
- Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above
if this applies to this match.
- The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp
league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added
weight to the more important matches.
- There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which
are not covered here.
- You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better
than expected against your opponent.
- We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results
and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate
ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
- For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file
here.
- If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated,
please contact us.
We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than
in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been
answered on the help page. We are unable to
answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your
level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before
contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points.
Or just be incredibly talented!