Alex Kilbride v Alexander Webb (Sun 14 Nov 2010)

Match won by Alexander Webb. Result: 6-11,11-6,9-11,12-10,2-11.

Starting level for Alex Kilbride: 148, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Alexander Webb: 540, level confidence: 44%.
Alexander Webb to win as he is currently playing 265% better than Alex Kilbride.

Alexander Webb won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alexander Webb played 13% better than Alex Kilbride in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alexander Webb was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 256 and 540 without affecting his level.

As Alexander Webb has played below his allowed range at 207, his level reduction is 24% before damping. On the assumption that Alexander Webb would normally have been playing at level 372 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Kilbride played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 49%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alexander Webb changes to -12% and Alex Kilbride changes to +23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alexander Webb becomes -7.4% and for Alex Kilbride becomes +13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Avon Junior Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alexander Webb is limited to -5% and Alex Kilbride is limited to +10% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alexander Webb: 67%, Alex Kilbride: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alexander Webb: 37%, Alex Kilbride: 37%.

Final level for Alex Kilbride: 163, level confidence: 37%.
Final level for Alexander Webb: 514, level confidence: 37%.

Notes

• This calculation is done in two main parts; first work out the adjustment needed to match the results and then apply damping. This means that levels should always be 'about right' but the time taken to get there or the volatility is dependent on the damping.
• A level also has 'level confidence' which drops if players haven't played for a long time or have had enexpected results. As low confidence levels adjust more quickly than high confidence levels, it allows these players to find their level more quickly without impacting their opponent's level too much.
• Point scores are used as well as game scores for accuracy - particularly important for 3-0 results - though we can work with game scores only too, albeit with more damping.
• Mismatched players are allowed for - you don't have to hammer your opponent. See explanation above if this applies to this match.
• The section on damping is where we still have some options. We have recently made a change to damp league matches more than tournament matches and box matches even more than that. This gives added weight to the more important matches.
• There are occasional, very small adjustments made to all players to keep the averages constant which are not covered here.
• You don't get a bonus just for winning - if you want to go up you have to play better than expected against your opponent.
• We have spent more than 5 years fine tuning the level calculations based on tens of thousands of match results and a great deal of feedback from players, team captains and coaches. It's the most usable and accurate ranking system there is in any sport, let alone squash.
• For a more complete explanation of how levels are calculated (on which this system is based) see the help file here.
• If you have thoughts/opinions on the above or any feedback on the way levels are calculated or updated, please contact us. We welcome all feedback, although we are keen squash players ourselves and would pefer to be on-court than in front of a screen so please be patient and please do try to see if your question has already been answered on the help page. We are unable to answer questions about hard anyone played in their match - we only get to see the results - and if your level didn't increase as expected please make sure you've looked at the above explanation before contacting us. If you want to go up the levels, train harder, listen to your coach and win more points. Or just be incredibly talented!