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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 4 (Wed 10 Oct 2007)Match played between Tim Jones (home) and Kevin Jones (away).Match won by Kevin Jones. Result: 3-9,0-9,8-9. Starting level for Tim Jones: 2,338, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Kevin Jones: 4,915, level confidence: 10%. Kevin Jones to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Tim Jones. Kevin Jones won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Jones played 57% better than Tim Jones in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Kevin Jones was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,527 and 4,915 without affecting his level. In this case, Kevin Jones played at level 3,946 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Kevin Jones would normally have been playing at level 4,241 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Jones played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Jones changes to 0% and Tim Jones changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Jones becomes 0% and for Tim Jones becomes +0.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2008' so the adjustment for Kevin Jones is 0% and for Tim Jones is +0.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Jones: 32%, Tim Jones: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Jones: 27%, Tim Jones: 60%. A final adjustment of -7.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Jones: 2,349, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Kevin Jones: 4,261, level confidence: 27%. Notes
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