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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redwood Phoenix v Lansdown 1 (Wed 17 Oct 2007)Match played between David Evans (home) and Panji Grainger (away).Match won by David Evans. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-1. Starting level for David Evans: 31,158, level confidence: 11%. Starting level for Panji Grainger: 2,460, level confidence: 10%. David Evans to win as he is currently playing 1167% better than Panji Grainger. David Evans won all of the games and 93% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 278% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Evans played 278% better than Panji Grainger in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that David Evans was taking it easy by anything up to 64%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,182 and 31,158 without affecting his level. In this case, David Evans played at level 10,252 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that David Evans would normally have been playing at level 11,303 (based on typical behaviour), Panji Grainger played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Evans changes to 0% and Panji Grainger changes to +2.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Evans becomes 0% and for Panji Grainger becomes +2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2008' so the adjustment for David Evans is 0% and for Panji Grainger is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Evans: 33%, Panji Grainger: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Evans: 18%, Panji Grainger: 17%. A final adjustment of +21.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Evans: 31,230, level confidence: 18%. Final level for Panji Grainger: 3,686, level confidence: 17%. Notes
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